2016秋新一轮霾情又至，但岂能病急乱投医？

发表于 2016年10月2日作者晴川矮马 — 918 条评论 ↓

2016年9月30日至10月2日，北京及周边华北各地霾情再起，多地发出空气质量黄色预警。矮马预报提前预报了本次污染时段的发生(详情请见wuranyubao.com.cn和aimayubao.com)。矮马预报预测北京的本轮霾情将在10月3日午后开始缓解。

矮马预报AQI空间分布对比监测总站实测全国城市AQI，2016年09日30日

矮马预报AQI空间分布对比监测总站实测全国城市AQI，2016年10日01日

矮马预报AQI空间分布对比监测总站实测全国城市AQI，2016年10日02日

针对2016年秋的首次霾至，10月2日各大媒体争相发布新闻，全都冠以醒目标题“环保部：PM10超往年同期五倍以上扬尘控制不到位”，并在疑似通稿中称“从污染物组分来看，PM10浓度高于往年同期五倍以上，说明各地量大面广的施工场地管理混乱无序，扬尘控制措施不到位。”

首先需要指出的是，本轮污染的首要污染物是PM2.5，而不是PM10。其次检视9月30日至10月2日北京所有国控站点的PM2.5和PM10的实时观测数据，我们不难发现PM2.5和PM10的比例全部都在90%左右。这么高的PM2.5占比，只能说明一个问题，即这次污染是一个典型的二次污染过程。所谓二次污染过程，是指空气中检测到的PM2.5高浓度并不是因为直接排放所致（环保部所指认的罪魁扬尘就是直接排放），而主要是由排放到大气中的气态污染物，比如氮氧化物，挥发性有机物，二氧化硫、氨气等，在一定的气象和环境条件下相互间发生复杂的化学反应转化生成细颗粒物所致。

文章分类 PM2.5科普, 灰霾预警, 环境新闻解读

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