重点提示: (1)停滞多日的区域天气形势有所发展,北方冷高压东移,中国中东部地区位于高压后部,风向东北偏东,山东半岛以南至长江口以北地区扩散条件略有好转; (2)风向转变给中东部沿海地区带来海上清洁空气,污染城市数量有所减少,但多日累积的污染物仍停留在内陆上空,华北平原以西至江汉平原等内陆城市空气质量不容乐观;
图1 2015年01月12日全国城市空气质量状况统计(数据来源:环保部数据中心)
天气形势:
11日晚间至12日白天西北太平洋上空盘踞多日的冷涡终于开始向东移动,使区域天气形势有所发展。之前停滞在内蒙上空的北方冷高压也随之向东移动,京津冀以南至长江中下游平原均位于高压后部,主导风向转为东北偏东风,沿海地区风力有所增大,污染扩散条件好转。但在内陆地区地表风力仍较弱,扩散条件差,污染物难以彻底清除。
图2 2015年01月12日地面天气图(08:00 UTC+8)和污染气象预报图 (图片来源:中央气象台)
预报回顾:
当日矮马全国AQI预报与实测结果的空间分布反映了区域天气形势的变化,污染气团随着风向的转变向西移动,核心污染区域位于江汉平原及太行山以西的黄土高原上空。预计未来数日该污染气团仍将在中国中东部大陆上空徘徊游荡,直至新一轮北方冷空气南下才有望将污染物彻底扫除。
图3 2015年01月12日AQI空气质量预报与实况比较(左:矮马预报;右:CNEMC数据平台)
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