空气质量预报是怎么做出来的?

要定量判断是否有PM2.5污染,需要用精密的科学仪器来进行日常监测。目前,全国170多个重点城市已经实现了日常监测PM2.5(以及其它5种空气污染物)的小时浓度并实时公布的举措,为公众准确判断PM2.5污染和空气质量好坏直接提供了科学依据。

而对于未来几天的PM2.5污染走势的判断,则需要依赖于当地的空气质量预报。空气质量预报一般采用统计预报模式或者数值预报模式。数值预报模式更为复杂,能够预报多天和格点化的空气质量。矮马预报就是一种数值预报。

一般的数值预报系统集成中尺度气象模式预报气象场,源排放模式处理源清单并准备空气质量模式所需源排放场, 以及区域空气质量模式预报污染物的化学与传输以及空气质量场,在大型计算机上从初始条件出发加上各种输入条件通过大规模计算求解污染物质量守恒方程组,从而给出未来几天时、空分布的空气质量状况。除预报常规的二氧化硫(SO2),二氧化氮(NO2),一氧化碳(CO)和可吸入颗粒物(PM10),以及臭氧(O3)和细颗粒物(PM2.5)外,还能基于预报的颗粒物各组分浓度预报能见度。

统计预报模式则是依赖利用历史数据建立的空气污染物浓度和其它变量例如气象参数之间的统计关系,再根据预测的未来气象参数,从而估算出未来的空气污染物浓度。不同地点的统计关系各异,因此统计预报模式只能对一城一地做出预报,不同地点需要建立不同的预报模式。

由于不论数值预报或者统计预报在目前的技术和信息条件限制情况下,往往都不能精准地预测未来污染状况,因此在空气质量预报的具体实践中,各国、各地实际进行的都是在模式预报结果的基础上进行人工修订的专家预报。我们称这些专家为空气质量预报员。

也就是说空气质量预报的一个完整流程应该是这样的:早上起来,空气质量预报员开始察看昨天以及今天的实时空气污染物监测的数值情况,然后根据汇总的监测数据分析过去几天到当前的空气污染走势;察看实时监测的污染物排放状况,比如地面或者卫星对秸秆焚烧的监测,对城市交通状况的监测(是否有异常拥堵的情况发生);察看实时的气象卫星云图和气象参数的观测情况;察看空气质量数值预报或者统计预报的未来预报结果,尤其关注预报的天气形势是否与最新的观测数据表明的未来趋势相符;根据经验判断模式预报结果的可靠性;根据经验和所有搜集到的最新信息,结合模式结果以及自己的修订给出独立的预报结果;最后与其他空气质量预报员进行会商;会商结果就是最终出炉的对明天或者更远未来的空气质量预报。

在我国,北京在奥运会,上海在世博会,广州在亚运会,深圳在大运会期间都尝试了空气质量预报服务,为运动员和公众提供空气质量日常预警。目前,发达国家在臭氧和PM2.5的预报上基本能做到日常服务,我国在这方面还有待进一步提高。矮马预报的出世就是为了在这个方面进行有益的探索,让我们携手努力。

 

标签: , , ,
文章分类 预报札记
17 comments on “空气质量预报是怎么做出来的?
  1. seeds exist说道:

    Thanks very nice blog!

    Also visit my blog post … seeds exist

  2. Fantastic goods from you, man. I have be aware your stuff prior
    to and you are simply extremely excellent. I really like what you’ve obtained right here,
    certainly like what you are saying and the way wherein you assert it.
    You make it entertaining and you continue to care for to stay it wise.
    I can not wait to read far more from you. That is really a terrific web site.

    Have a look at my blog: amazing weight loss

  3. cannabis doctor说道:

    Hmm is anyone else experiencing problems with the images on this blog loading?
    I’m trying to figure out if its a problem on my end or
    if it’s the blog. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

    Review my website; cannabis doctor

  4. www.aniene.net说道:

    Very good blog you have here but I was curious if you knew of any
    community forums that cover the same topics discussed here?

    I’d really love to be a part of group where I can get feedback from other experienced individuals that share
    the same interest. If you have any recommendations, please let me know.

    Appreciate it!

    Also visit my webpage … http://www.aniene.net

  5. Wow, that’s what I was looking for, what a material!
    present here at this web site, thanks admin of this site.

    Also visit my webpage; Summer Valley CBD Review

  6. j.mp说道:

    Ahaa, its fastidious conversation about this piece of writing here at this blog, I have read all that, so at this time me also commenting at this place.

  7. Top 100 Best Pornstars 2018 (Hottest Female Pornstars)

  8. mlp sex说道:

    Her anime-themed scenes and shoots might be out there for some, but you don’t have to collect DVD boxsets
    to enjoy her shows’ creative sexuality. Existing both on cam sites and through her own store selling
    adult clips, Rose has a sensual darkness to some of her scenes that will appeal to horror fans.
    This isn’t a space to mess around if you’re just looking
    to get off—it’s full of helpful information about
    payment, protection, and how to navigate sex work and adult industries.
    We’ve spoken to Charley Hart in the past about her work with CamSoda, and no matter what kind of camgirl experience you’re looking for Hart probably provides it.

    This 34-year-old self-described MILF works on both MFC and Camsoda, so if you
    have a favorite site you don’t need to choose. That implies you can utilize these personals in the looking through
    area as a strategy to discover singles or couples that have the highlights that you need in a hot date.
    Hart is already active in live shows, private clips, and on social media, but she’s also looking to expand in the porn industry this year.
    A ‘go-see’ is a common practice in the porn industry where a director
    requests to see the model or performer in person.

  9. Current Gene Therapy 7:49-66; U.S. Most beneficial is a safe harbor
    locus in which expression of the inserted gene sequence is not perturbed by any read-through expression from neighboring genes.
    Argonaute protein thought to be involved in gene silencing.
    Knelt before I thought of him. Pregnancy was awesome for our sex life, I
    feel like we were having sex plenty, and I thought
    she was sexier than ever when she was pregnant.
    If Baltimore, Maryland could feel comfortable tub work.
    This graph shows that the monkeys started releasing dopamine immediately after the signal (i.e., the
    light) appeared and then sharply stopped releasing dopamine after
    they began pressing the level (i.e., the work). They walked into my butt was happy to
    work. Our free live porn chats will supply you with the opportunity to find out
    what these sexy chat hotties are looking for
    in bed and give it to them in our private chat rooms.
    Month, she could down to the cot bed. What she began streaming down and his eyes for a
    lot. Along the door to waste any excitement and naked cams
    live mine free milf webcam down my waist pulling at the bottle
    of honour, I was soar.

  10. Pretty nice post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to
    say that I have really enjoyed surfing around your blog posts.

    In any case I’ll be subscribing to your rss feed and I hope you
    write again very soon!

  11. link dominobet说道:

    Thanks for any օther informative site. Where ekse could I get that kіnd of infformation written іn such a perfect approach?
    Ӏ’ve a venture that I’m simply now running on, and Ihave been oon the look outt foг such information.

    Also viѕit my wеƄ sitee link dominobet

  12. sữa béo说道:

    Có rất nhiều nhân viên sửng sốt khi dùng
    sữa không hề khó tiêu, đầy bụng, tiêu chảy đặc biệt
    là khó tiêu.

  13. FastAction Keto说道:

    Utterly indited subject matter, thank you for information.

    my blog: FastAction Keto

  14. Klaus说道:

    These flowers characterize young passionate love.

  15. Mega Arise Max说道:

    Hello! I could have sworn I?ve visited this web site before but after going through many of the posts I realized it?s new to me.
    Anyhow, I?m certainly happy I discovered it and I?ll be book-marking it and checking back frequently!

    Here is my homepage … Mega Arise Max

  16. I gotta bookmark this web site it seems very useful very helpful.

    Review my homepage :: BTC Prestige Login

  17. Chatrabate does not work, I invite you to
    my login windy_rouse BongaCams bongacams24

63 Pings/Trackbacks 对 "空气质量预报是怎么做出来的?"

seeds exist进行回复 取消回复

电子邮件地址不会被公开。 必填项已用*标注

*

我是人类 *

您可以使用这些HTML标签和属性: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>