自5月23日起,强沙尘开始袭击甘肃北部,并逐渐向东蔓延。5月24日,沙尘暴蔓延至甘肃南部以及宁夏、内蒙等地。25日,沙尘袭击进一步向东蔓延,抵达山西、河南、河北。沙尘所过之地,黄沙漫天,PM10浓度迅速超标。如下列重点城市AQI日报图所示,这次源于甘肃的强沙尘袭击最终在5月25日造成大范围的PM10空气污染。波及陕甘宁以及华北大部地区,并在相当大的范围内表现为中度到重度污染。
沙尘颗粒的粒径较大,多数肉眼可以,所以沙尘来临表现为黄沙漫天。但是沙尘里面真正对人体有害,被纳入空气质量指标体系的仍然是可吸入颗粒物,即PM10。历史上,我们也监测总悬浮颗粒物,即TSP,用TSP可以更好地描述沙尘总量,但是TSP并不直接对应健康效应。另外,沙尘中粒径大的部分,较易在短距离内沉降,即较快脱离悬浮状态回到地面。而其粒径较小的部分,比如PM10则更易长途奔袭,长期悬浮在空气中,被迅速传输至人口稠密地区。这对那些远离沙漠、戈壁的人们来说,沙尘引起PM10超标,仿佛污染从天而降。
可惜的是矮马预报和过往遇到沙尘天气一样,没有预报出这次沙尘暴袭击带来的PM10污染(如下图所示)。原因是,在目前的矮马预报系统中,我们还没有加入预测沙尘起尘机制的预报模块。在预报模式中缺少沙尘的源排放数据,当然就没有可能预报沙尘的严重影响。可喜的是,我们正在测试一个先进的起尘机制模块,有望在不远的将来,将它整合进矮马预报系统,从而实现对强沙尘天气影响内地空气质量的情况提前进行准确预报。
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